Explain predictive models
You have a forest fit, but what does it say about a clinical prediction? Start with whether it converged, then choose the slice that answers what it predicts, which variables matter, and where a predictor changes the response.
Choose the next recipe
| Your question | Recipe | Why this one |
|---|---|---|
| Did the forest settle as more trees were grown? | Random forest error convergence | Reads the out-of-bag error curve before interpreting the fit. |
| What does the forest predict for a patient or group? | Predicted response and survival | Shows fitted responses and survival estimates. |
| Which predictors contribute most to the fit? | Variable importance | Ranks variables by their contribution to prediction. |
| How did a variable contribute to an individual prediction? | SHAP attribution | Shows per-observation, per-variable attributions. |
| How does the predicted response change over a predictor? | Variable and partial dependence | Draws marginal and partial effects. |
| How well does a classification forest discriminate and calibrate? | ROC and Brier performance | Gives ROC and Brier views of classification performance. |
| Which variables survive rule-based selection? | Variable priority with varPro | Shows the variable-priority workflow. |
| What does a selected variable do across its range? | varPro partial dependence | Reads the partial effect after selection. |
| How do I inspect a forest with time-varying covariates? | Random Hazard Forests | Uses start-stop data when predictors and risk change with time. |